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November 05, 2014 10:40 AM UTC

Will Democrats Hold Both General Assembly Chambers?

  • 16 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: Via the Denver Business Journal, ballot counting in Adams County is agonizingly slow due to write-in votes in a countywide race. As a result, they may not be done counting until tomorrow:

County officials had about 25,000 ballots left to count when they went home at 2 a.m. Wednesday, Siedlecki said. Clerk's office workers and judges returned at 9 a.m. this morning but have the capacity only to count between 15,000 and 20,000 ballots per day, meaning that the tallying is likely to stretch into Thursday, he said.

"There also were a large number of ballots turned in Monday and Tuesday," Siedlecki said, noting that added to the delay.

Hanging in the balance are one Senate race and two House races that likely will determine which parties control each of the legislative chambers…

The delay of results could delay elections for legislative leadership positions, including House speaker and Senate president. Those elections typically take place on the Thursday morning after the election but may have to be postponed if it remains unclear which party leads one or both of the chambers.

—–

colorado-state-capitol

Last's night's despair as Democrats suffered wide-ranging losses both in Colorado and nationally is giving way to cautious hope this morning that Colorado Democrats may, in addition to holding the Governor's Mansion, narrowly retain control of the Colorado Senate and House. FOX 31:

Though the GOP takeover swept across the nation on Tuesday, two pro-gun Republican recall winners who helped start the shift of power in Colorado before election season lost their seats in the state Senate Tuesday night, leaving control of that crucial chamber still up for grabs Wednesday morning.

If Democrats were to retain their majority in the state Senate, they would control that chamber as well as the state House and governor’s office, with FOX31 Denver calling that tight race in favor of John Hickenlooper Wednesday morning.

Before Tuesday’s election, Democrats held an 18-17 edge in the state Senate, with 18 seats up for grabs. If the races concluded where they stood as of 8 a.m. Wednesday morning, Democrats would retain that one-seat majority.

Two of the seats that changed hands Tuesday night once belonged to pro-gun recall winners Bernie Herpin, R-Colorado Springs, and George Rivera, R-Pueblo, both of whom lost their races by relatively large margins in Districts 11 and 3, respectively.

In the House, a couple of Adams County Democrats came up unexpectedly short, with Joe Salazar and Jenise May narrowly trailing underdog Republican opponents. It's since been reported that thousands of ballots remain uncounted in both Adams County and Jefferson County, quite possibly enough to flip those two House races back to Democrats in addition to boosting Democratic Senate candidates in tight Jeffco races. On the West Slope, SD-5 Democratic candidate Kerry Donovan is narrowly ahead of Republican Don Suppes–another vital bulwark against a Republican takeover of the Senate.

In short? Watch this space, because between John Hickenlooper's re-election and this developing situation, there's a chance the gloating by state-level Republicans last night was a little premature.

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16 thoughts on “Will Democrats Hold Both General Assembly Chambers?”

  1. Just finished a thorough review.

    Current Senate:

    By my count Dems won the Pueblo and Colo Spgs seats lost in the recalls.  Lost 16 (Nicholson) and 19 Zenzinger in Jeffco and are currently losing In the Tochtrop seat (24) in Adams county.  That would be Reps by 1 if that holds, with lots of votes out in District 24 (approx 10,000) where they are down by 1,216 votes.  Don't think 19 with Zenzinger will change as she's down just over 1,000 and it doesn't look like there are enough votes out in Jeffco to change that.

     

    Colorado House

    Dems won only 32 seats, including Dist 36 in Aprapaho county which they won by only 167 votes.  The only other districts where they are close are 30 and 31 in Adams where Dems are down by 472 and 340 respectively.  There are approximately 7,100 votes left in each district if my math is correct and the turnout in these districts was around state average of 50%.  Also, 59 down in Durango MacLanahan is down by only 292, but apparently there are still some votes out in Gunnison county, just hope it's the right part of Gunnison.

     

    So, right now, looks like either Dems or Reps will have a 1 vote margin in the Senate.  House could be anywhere from 34 to 31 Rep margin to 35-30 Dem margin.

    Guess the Dems didn't think Adams County was important this year.  Hopefully the votes out will still come in.

     

    Oh, by the way, where was that Democratic turnout machine?  100,000 more votes than in 2010.  That's probably just natural growth and aging of population.  Doesn't seem like it had any affect.  Couldn't be because the top of the ticket ran a terrible campaign that drug the whole ticket down, could it?

  2. Oh, in addition SOS web site isn't showing any votes out in Jeffco.  I saw a report late last night that there were 6,500 votes from yesterday to be counted this morning, but that might be wrong and it probably won't make a difference in either of the two Senate races where Dems are behind by 1,000 and 2,500.  If you have knowledge of more votes being out, I'd be happy to hear it.

    1. NOW: most likely #coleg balance of power will be R's control senate by 1, D's control house by 1. #copolitics #9News

      — Brandon Rittiman (@BrandonRittiman) November 5, 2014

      Would be amazing if Dems hold 1-seat Senate majority but lose 9-seat edge in House. Very possible at this point. #COpolitics #COleg

      — Eli Stokols (@EliStokols) November 5, 2014

      (well really a five seat swing, but…)

      Still up in the air.  I think Rittiman is more likely right, but it's down to which precincts aren't in now and how they tend to vote.  Pretty micro.

      1. It seems like politicians in Washington have a completely different set of priorities than politicians here in Colorado. Always impressed by how Democrats and Republicans have worked together in Colorado. Hopefully they don't opt to act like children the way they do at the federal level. 

        1. Oh, they're a bunch of babies down here too.  Just in the last few years, I can think of Frank McNulty running the session out on civil unions (oops, now the gays can marry), at least one year in which the Pubs almost blew up the budget by insisting on including an unrelated rider from a failed bill by Brian DelGrosso.  To your point, they've been better, but remember that the Republicans currently in and being elected are more ideologues and fewer compromisers.  If the senate goes R this year, some pretty nutty stuff is going to come out (to be killed in the hopefully D house *fingers crossed*).

          1. I predict Chris Holbert's baby – anyone can carry concealed, because, who doesn't need some shootin' somtimes?  Personhood (and a package of abortion restrictions).  Dial backs on renewable requirements (either all then whittled down to rural coops or just coops introduced).  Let's see, and, something union-busting.

            Let's see how I do!

            1. Don't forget – there are also likely to be efforts to open up more public and private lands for oil and gas operations, and to reduce already moderate industry regulations.

              Oh, and whatever happened to that special oil and gas task force . . . does anybody care?

  4. Lessons will be learned. In 2016 Dems will have a chance to run a better campaign — without Hick's mouth doing its best to self-defeat, and Udall's odd effort — and recover.  Have no expectation that the Republican Congress will be able to govern well at all, and a split legislature here should keep things fairly uneventful. This wave election though will likely embolden the extreme GOP elements to not go the Romney Way next time and force through a purist (Cruz)

     

    1. You badly misunderestimate what happened here.  The sea of change here was in Adams County and Pueblo county where Democrats have coasted for years.  Also, are you looking at what happened in Jeffco.  Udall came within 1,000 votes and Hick carried by 10,000.  In Arapahoe, Hick won bigger and Udall came close.  Both of these should have been winning scenarios for both candidates.  Yet Republicans gain two Senate seats in Jeffco, one Senate seat in Adams and two house seats in Adams.  Jeffco and Adams are just weird, weird, weird.  It will take some figuring out to figure out what happened in these two counties and whether the Dems have any hope again.

      1. Before that happens, it looks like they'll make a run for majority leader.  I understand that Ted Cruz will not commit to support Yertle as the new leader.  

        Perhaps Cruz will run himself although I doubt it.  What was that saying that Sam Rayburn used to say about it taking a carpenter to build a barn but any jackass can kick one down.

        I guess McConnell has also taken repeal (branch, root, stem, and every other botanical part) of Obamacare off the table.  I wonder how he'll break the news to the lunatic fringe.  If I were him, I'd send Rand Paul with the message……

        1. fringe

          noun

          the outer, marginal, or extreme part of an area, group, or sphere of activity.

          Ain't no fringe no more, son.  Crazy is the new black.

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